Heterogeneous effects of heatwaves and short-term temperature changes on mortality

Heterogeneous effects of heatwaves and short-term temperature changes on mortality

This project uses large-scale population cohort data and high-resolution meteorological information to evaluate the effects of heatwaves and short-term temperature fluctuations on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with particular attention to effect heterogeneity.

Using distributed lag non-linear models and causal-inference methods, the study will conduct stratified analyses by age, sex, socioeconomic status, degree of urbanisation, and prior health condition in order to identify vulnerable subgroups with greater precision.

The findings will provide evidence to support climate-adaptation policy, refinement of heat-health warning systems, and mitigation strategies for urban heat islands in the United Kingdom and other high-income countries facing similar risks.

Keywords: heatwaves; short-term temperature change; mortality; effect modification; climate change and health